For homeowner-owned systems... the federal tax credit is gone. In Califoria and most of the USA, net metering is gone. CA IOU residential accounts are being transitioned from per-energy-unit charges to fixed you-can't-do-shit-about-this-you-sucker charges (starting at $24 per month). ...And other corporate-vampire-squid-and-their-"regulator"-henchmen ploys (like fees for zero-export PV systems (i.e. charging people to use their own PV power at their own site)).
On the other hand, by golly, quality PV is getting really cheap. Batteries too, but not as extreme. Meanwhile, CA IOU electric rates are the highest in the continental USA.
The transition to electric everything is inevitable, because pulling stuff out of the ground and setting it on fire in our homes... is expensive and unhealthy and is quickly becoming the objectively-inferior user experience.
But the 20th-century natural-gas infrastructure build out... an amazing achievement. I love our wall heater. I love my hot baths. I love my tacos. The power goes out and I can still enjoy those luxuries. The gas has given me, in a way, a better living experience than the most opulent kings of old Europe.
We'll pull this infrastructure out. But I'm not in a big rush. I don't need to rush anyone.
I mainly came here to share Oakstead's new system-proposal game plan ("Oakstead" is my lil install company):
I plan to typically propose starting with PV only (maybe adding batteries later). Under net billing.
...With one or more simple displays in the home:
• Here's the total site load right now.
• Here's the PV power right now.
• Here's the spare PV power right now (if applicable).
(My proposals will include Shelly load + PV monitors (with my custom API integrations)... because Shelly is local first and rad.)
With net billing, that (exported) difference is getting them ~wholesale credit (~six cents). ...Maybe to be disregarded, because the 5x retail rate hits so much harder. And because some will want to orient towards ultimately going off grid (more below).
The goal — without harshing home life and sleeping on the couch — is to creatively shift all practical loads to when the sun casts its sweet rays down uponeth us.
...Like back before electric lighting. Make hay when the sun shines, to the extent this is convenient. Calibrate habits over time with the stupid-simple displays. Rely less on the displays over time — becoming more aware of environmental conditions.
An obvious example: Run (heat-pump) clothes / dish cleaning machines in the sunny afternoon instead of at night. The former is currently a USA heat-pump thing... the latter will be.
The habit adjustment requires being around... people that don't work at home will need more automation sooner than later.
An obvious automation example:
Charge an electric car dynamically with otherwise-exported PV power. The open-source car charger from OpenEVSE, for example, supports this at sub-one-second intervals (I installed one so far... loved it). Apparently I can set this up with the Tesla API... I'm not keen to support Tesla technology... but some prospects have Teslas and I bet the API is really well done (a good place to step up my nerd game).
Another enticing example:
Pre heat (or pre cool) the home during the day with a heat pump — up to the top (or bottom) of the comfort window. Coast to the bottom (or top) of the comfort window at night. The better the home's air sealing and insulation, the better this 🤘
Thermal Energy Storage System 🤘 will work. (I started the process of air sealing and insulating our condo crawl space / attic... I'm stoked to finish this, install a mini-split heat pump (and a whole-home dehum), analyze, and write about it.)
Same idea with a heat-pump water heater. Or maybe start with a small tankless resistance heater upstream of the existing natural-gas water-heater tank.
There's the simple display with the real-time data. Separately, there's reporting on % of PV power used on site in the past x days, $ overview, sitch if they had a battery (here's your site as is, and here's your site with a "synthetic" battery). Etc.
If the math justifies it, add more PV (because it's relatively cheap and is very simple / reliable). Consider adding east facing and west facing PV to broaden the PV-power window. ...Maybe vertically on walls or fences to broaden further.
For phase one, consider using a basic cheap (Chinese) grid-following inverter. With a year of data in hand, consider the option of going off grid (maintaining the grid connection (at least at first) as emergency backup).
...Swap out the basic grid-following inverter (to be installed elsewhere (probably temporarily)) for a long-term grid-forming inverter (or AC couple the former into the latter). Consider supporting a battery with a small (and quiet) 🔥 propane generator 🔥.
Design to never import from the grid (even in the darkest winter week). Put the system behind a manual transfer switch. If failure, the homeowner switches to grid power. And I troubleshoot the failure.
(If behind a transfer switch... some AHJs might let us install 🔵 Victron inverters 🔵 or 🎸 MidNite Rosie inverters 🎸 (that have the UL 1741 safety listing but not the UL 1741-SB grid-interactive listing).)
Once the system has proven to be dialed in and reliable for at least a year... disconnect from the grid (legality TBD, or try telling the utility "we moved" and see how it goes 👀).
...This might sound like some extreme prepper thing. But remember that a new CA IOU back-pocket weapon is the fixed charge. $24 per month to start, and we'll see where it goes from there. Even if it was locked in at $24/mo for a decade... what if the up-front + ongoing cost of a modest generator is less? I need to analyze.
In any case, I like the idea of starting slow and building out incrementally. Get that data, and refine the system with a scalpel (not a chainsaw). Understood that it'll take special people to undergo this nerdy journey with me. The East Bay has those ❤️.
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